Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine looms large on Turkey’s foreign policy. Ankara’s balancing act between Russia and Ukraine makes the issue even more difficult to manage. Despite several attempts at peace mediation, successes have so far been limited in scope: a prisoner swap and a grain deal allowing cereals to be shipped from Odessa and neighboring ports under a monitoring mechanism set up in Istanbul with the United Nations.

Even when Russia declared that it was withdrawing from the arrangement, Turkey went ahead, probably on the condition that Ukraine would not use the shipping corridors to hide attacks on the Russian Black Sea fleet. These efforts are worthy of praise, but as such do not lead to peace.

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