The upcoming presidential elections in Turkey, on the eve of the centenary of the establishment of the Turkish Republic, will be the most challenging chapter of its 100-year history. The May 14 election will define the future of Turkey internally and externally.
The Supreme Election Board's (YSK) announced that four candidates have qualified to run in Turkey’s presidential election. They are President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as the candidate of the Public Alliance, which includes his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and several other small opposition parties. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, candidate of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and his allied parties in the table of six which includes Meral Akşener, the leader of the İYİ (Good) Party. Muharrem İnce, leader of Memleket (Homeland) Party, former deputy from the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), and Sinan Oğan, the candidate of a bloc of four far-right parties.
The main two contenders are Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu. The spoiler is Mr. İnce who can hurt the opposition chances to defeating Erdoğan. Recently, Kılıçdaroğlu and İnce had a meeting to iron out their differences and try to convince İnce to withdrew his candidates or cooperate with the main opposition in a united front. So far no tangible agreement as been reached. Over 110 former CHP deputies, who served with İnce, have called on him to withdraw from the presidential race over a concerns that he is splitting the opposition’s votes.
The other major player in this election will be the Kurdish vote. The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) in parliament which is the third- largest bloc in the current parliament, announced that they are not fielding a candidate of their own in this presidential election. This decision is favouring Kılıçdaroğlu. It is forgone conclusion that the majority of the Turkish vote will vote for the opposition. The HDP garners between 12% to 14% of the vote. Erdogan decision to clamp down on elected Kurdish officials and arrest large number of parliamentary members of the HDP, including the Co-Chairman Selahattin Demirtaş, and dozens of Kurdish city mayors, turned the tied with the Kurdish voters. Furthermore, Erdoğan is in the process of closing HDP Party. He asked the constitutional court to ban the party and 451 HDP politicians and party members from political life. HDP co-Chairpersons Pervin Buldan stated that HDP will campaign against “one man rule.”
Kılıçdaroğlu, said he is against the closure of the HDP and the appointment of trustees by the government to replace democratically- elected HDP mayors.
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has also secured the endorsement of Ahmet Necdet Sezer, Turkey’s 10th president.
In the past 20 years of his rule, Erdoğan turned Turkey to an autocratic, one-man executive country and presidency. He turned the country to his fiefdom.
Erdoğan was first elected president for a five-year renewable term in 2014 under the parliamentary system. Turkey switched to the presidential system of governance with a referendum in 2017 and held presidential and parliamentary elections in 2018. Erdoğan was re-elected president again.
Since the 15 July 2016 failed coup d'état, Erdoğan handcuffed Turkey, as Meral Danış Beştaş stated, in the Turkish parliament. “You turned the country to a ‘coup d’état’ regime, by pouting …handcuffs on everyone, including mayors and politicians,” she stated. She added: “You are trying to rule the country with atrocities, oppression, and torture.”
Under Erdoğan’s authoritarian rule, over 1 million Turks have been prosecuted, over 100,000 civil servants were purged from key state institutions, judiciary has been co-opted, and imprisoned pregnant women, children and the ailing elderly.
Erdoğan shut down critical mass media and social media outlets. After China, Turkey is the top jailer of journalists in the world. He also closed workers unions. Hence, silencing opposition voices.
Erdoğan’s Turkey is the home of kidnappings, torture, police brutality, arbitrary mass detentions, media blackouts and the oppression of anyone who voices criticism. Turkey’s citizens are suffering under Erdogan’s police state and its increased brutality of their human and civil rights.
Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, the UN, European Court of Human Rights, Reporters Without Borders, and other human rights organizations have extensively criticised Erdoğan’s anti-democratic rule.
Critics said the Turkish government was using terrorist affiliation as a pretense to suppress dissent and punish political opponents of Erdoğan.
The wide-spread corruption in which Erdogan and his family members or those close to him involved caused many of his supporters to abandoned him. Among them over a 100 senior AKP party founders and members including former president Abdullah Gül, former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, and former Foreign Minister Ali Babacan. The leader of the Republican people party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, estimated the size of this corruption at $418 billion, and he also mentioned the vanishing of $128 billion from the central bank’s reserves.
Internationally, Erdoğan abandoned his former Foreign Minister (later Prime Minister) Ahmet Davutoglu’s “zero problem with neighboring countries” doctrine and put Turkey in endless problems with his neighbors and NATO allies. He also strayed from Mustafa Kemal Atatürk policy of “Peace at home, peace in the world” foreign policy. Davutoglu is member of the opposition table of six and supporter of Kılıçdaroğlu.
Erdoğan sent the Turkish army to war in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and the largely Armenian-inhabited Nagorno-Karabakh region. Furthermore, he established permanent military bases in Qatar, Azerbaijan, and Somalia. This is in addition to his illegal occupation of Northern Cyprus.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine exposed Erdoğan’s disloyalties to his NATO allies when he circumvented the sanctions imposed on Russia and enabled Putin to continue his trade, banking, oil, and gas exports to the world. In addition, Turkey has led the world in exports to Russia since the beginning of the conflict in February 2022. Russian oligarchs and Putin’s conduits from Europe have moved their assets to Turkey which is haven for their activities.
Erdoğan’s insistence to buy Russian-made S-300 and S-400 air defense systems is another bone of contention with his NATO allies. His constant threat of invading Greece and overflying the sovereign territory of Greece are also part of the west’s distrust of Erdoğan.
Lastly, Erdoğan’s intention to use the illegal refugees problem to blackmail his European partners is the straw that broke the camel’s back. Erdoğan has destabilized NATO's security in so many strategic ways.
These internal and foreign policies do not collate with NATO’s and western alliance’s values and traditions. Which forced political leaders, scholars, and pundits to question if Erdoğan is truest wordy ally? Some even went further by demanding the expulsion of Turkey from NATO.
In a recently published report by analysis Bobby Ghosh in the Washington Post stated: “He [Erdoğan] has undermined NATO’s security by acquiring missile-defense systems from Russia, frustrated the alliance by blocking the membership of Sweden, repeatedly threatened to flood Europe with refugees and, in recent months, hurled increasingly bellicose rhetoric toward Greece. Ankara’s relations with Washington have strained to the point where top Turkish officials routinely accuse the US of backing a coup against Erdogan with the complicity with terrorist groups.”
He added: “The US and Europe would be better off without Erdogan’s disruptive influence in world affairs.”
It is obvious that Erdoğan is ideologically anti-Western. He is dreaming of reviving the "glorious Ottoman Empire" and becomes the new Sultan.
His worrying influence on regional and international politics since he took power is beyond question.
In the same report, political analyst Selim Koru, commented “Erdogan’s worldview is far more radical than most Westerners think. His ambition for Turkey’s immediate neighborhood, where Ankara is increasingly influential, is not to complement American and European influence, it’s to replace and counter them.”
In piece in the Wall Street Journal, the former US National Security Advisor John Bolton called on NATO to expel Turkey. Bolton condemned Erdogan's "divisive and dangerous" approach and "belligerent regional policies."
In regard to the ramification of the Turkish presidential elections on Greece-Turkey relation, we should keep in mind that Erdoğan has never hidden his displeasure with the vital Lausanne Treaty and questioned its validity. He never accepted the terms of the Treaty. He constantly makes intimidating threat to Greece’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
In a speech to regional officials in Ankara, Erdoğan expressed his displeasure with the border decisions implemented by the Treaty. “In Lausanne, we gave away the islands that you could shout across to,” he said. He further added “We are still struggling about what the continental shelf will be, and what will be in the air and the land. The reason for this is those who sat at the table for that treaty. Those who sat there did not do [us] justice, and we are reaping those troubles right now.”
We should keep in mind that July 2023 is the 100th Anniversary of the treaty. On many occasions Erdoğan stated that his intentions are to scrap the Treaty and mend the wrongs which the Treaty inflicted upon Turkey.
The Blue Homeland Maritimes strategy, is another manifestation of Erdoğan’s grand design to usurp Greek territory. The treat to gas exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean and his troop’s presence and illegal occupation of Cyprus since 1974 are indicative of Erdogan’s real intentions towered Greece.
Erdoğan’s “Remember Smyrna” speech should alert every one of his genuine aspirations. On many occasions, Erdoğan’s confirmed his hostile intent vis-a-vis Greece. On one occasion he stated: “We have only one word to tell Greece: Do not forget Izmir [Smyrna]. We may come suddenly one night.” On another occasion he said: “Your [Greece] occupying the islands does not bind us. When the time, the hour, comes, we will do what is necessary.”
The restart of “Positive Agenda” initiative by is nothing but a charade and an attempt to shore up Erdoğan’s popularity before the May 14 election. He tried the same tactic to reconcile with the Syrian and Egyptian presidents and asked Russia to arrange a meeting between him the two Arab Presidents. He failed on both accounts. The Syrian and Egyptian presidents refused to fall in Erdoğan’s trap and give him free publicity to polish his image as a peace-loving regional and world leader. It is worth noting that before the Arab Spring, Erdoğan and Assad, the Syrian president, were best of friends. With the launch of the Arab Spring, Erdoğan turned on Assad and he supported the terrorist to topple Assad.
Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul think tank EDAM, considered that if Erdoğan is defeated “his successor will transform Turkey into a different foreign policy actor, more comfortable with its position as a Western nation.”
According to various surveys and experts, Erdoğan is in jeopardy of losing the election. Many polls are showing, in a verity of degree, that the opposition leader Kılıçdaroğlu is ahead. If Muharrem İnce decides to withdrew from the presidential race or throw his support behind Kılıçdaroğlu, Kılıçdaroğlu might win the election on the first round.
Erdoğan is desperate to win the election. That's why he started a charm offensive campaign to address the negative ramifications of his policies. He announced a rash of public spending to win back the support of dissatisfied voters. He promised a reduction in gas bills, announced a 15% discount on electricity, promised an increase in the monthly minimum wage, increase for pensioners, and brought tax relief.
In response to the twin earthquakes he announced large-scale plans to build, within a year, housing for the earthquake victims. Experts questioned the one-year commitment to deliver his housing plans.
Some have even suggested that, if Erdoğan loses the election, he might not accept the elections results. In addition, he would resorted, if he feels his presidency is in jeopardy, to false flag security operation or launch a war with a neighboring country to delay or cancel the election.
Vote rigging is another means for Erdoğan to stay in power. Cevheri Güven and other Turkish journalists living in exile have detailed in YouTube videos how Erdoğan is preparing to rig the vote.
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has refused to recognize Turkish elections as free and fair since 2015.
Erdoğan will do anything in his power to stay as president for another term. Otherwise, he might end up like Saddam Hussein of Iraq or Muammar Gaddafi of Libya.
Aris Babikian https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aris_Babikian