Ankara’s drone sales to Kiev have angered Moscow. A military escalation in and around Ukraine would endanger Turkey’s relationship with Russia, impair its participation in NATO operations, or both.
Turkey’s military industry has made considerable progress in recent years and has started locally producing some of its most critical equipment. The intention is to achieve self-sufficiency as soon as possible and to use or export this weaponry as a tool of influence on the international scene. As understandable as it may be, this policy is difficult to manage in turbulent times. Seasoned observers of the Russian military are warning that the possibility of war may be higher now than in the spring.

 Executive summary
Alliance structures in the world’s key strategic regions are changing. One feature notable in many regions is a shift towards minilateralism: small international groups assembled to achieve limited if significant strategic objectives, as opposed to broader, larger or more formal bilateral or multilateral alliances or institutions.

A major driver of this trend is the increasing assertiveness of ‘challenger states’ such as China, Iran, Russia and Turkey, whose strategic behaviour is insufficiently deterred or contained by existing larger alliance or security relationships, prompting the perception that increased strategic agility is required, perhaps through ‘special purpose strategic vehicles’.

 INTRODUCTION
Will 2021 be remembered as the year when President Vladimir Putin gave up on talking to Ukraine’s leadership and made his decisive move to return it by force to Russia’s orbit? He triggered a serious war scare in March and April of this year, but for some unknown reason decided not to move ahead with re-invading a vulnerable, much smaller neighbor. Now, Putin is once again moving troops near the border with Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has suggested that Russia may be laying a trap for Ukraine that intentionally provokes Russia into invading. Seasoned observers of the Russian military are warning that the possibility of war may be higher now than in the spring.
Putin has also stepped up his rhetoric about Ukraine in multiple public appearances during 2021. He has hinted broadly that his patience with Kyiv is running out. A careful review of the Russian leader’s record with respect to Ukraine suggests that almost all of the requisite components and justifications for military intervention are either in—or moving into—place. Both the near- and long-term indicators suggest that Kyiv and Washington have good reasons to worry.

 Transatlantic disunity and a lack of strategy over how to deal with Russia’s ultimatum is placing Europe’s security architecture at risk.

The West has no choice but to put up a strong united front.

When mapping Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions with regard to Europe, there are many dates to consider.